By Oluwole Leigh
Disclaimer:
The opinions in this article are written with a lot of bias and subjectivity. I hate PDP and all that it represents. I hate suffering, poverty, poor health care, corruption and bad roads. If APC were a serious party, I would be a frontline member
The 2015 Elections are less than a year away if we follow the timeline released by the Independent Electoral Commission. Preparations are being made by various political players. Even though Campaigns have not officially kicked off, rallies are not in short supply. The question on a lot of minds is ‘What will 2015 bring?’
A lot of young Nigerians have a strong desire for something out of the Extra-ordinary to happen in 2015. We want the future to be totally different from the past. Unfortunately, I have chosen not to deceive myself any longer. I am preparing for the ‘Worst Case Scenario’. What are the current indicators – Unabated Corruption, Rising Unemployment, Increase in Terrorism, Collapsed Healthcare etc. On account of the evidence before us, there is no rational basis for us to expect 2015 elections to be different from the previous ones. I have put the following assumptions into my Crystal ball set and have come out with these findings
1. PDP will change
As far as we know, the largest ruling party in the Country is the People’s Democratic Party. It controls the majority in the House of Representatives, Senate and has the highest number of elected Governors. It has consistently won most of the elections that have been held since the arrival of democracy in 1999. The present state of things in Nigeria can be traced to the actions / inactions of this party. I do not intend to bore you with the devastating details of the effect of PDP on our nation. A lot of hopes are being pinned on a few good folks helping to change PDP from the inside. This idea is built on the thinking that if more good people joined them, they would outrank the evil ones eventually. The facts do not support this assertion. The PDP has proven to be an indestructible organism, consistently influencing everyone that associates with it. Journalists, Trade Unionists, Activists and all others who we cloak with the garb of ‘Goodness’ have joined PDP but have not been able to effect any change. The general view is that these ‘Reform minded’ visitors are in turn influenced by the larger organization. The structures that made PDP to be the way it is will have to be dismantled before we can see any meaningful change. I do not see this change coming before 2015
2. APC will be different
APC (All Progressives Congress) is an amalgam of various opposition parties – ACN, CPC, ANPP etc. The situation with Opposition parties in our system is that they have to be built around a Strong man. The Strong man is usually responsible for the funding, strategic direction and political reach of the party. Thus, the APC is really an association of strong men and their supporters. The problem with such an arrangement is that the ideal ingredients of Political associations are dumped in favor of following the wishes of the ‘Party Leader’. Basic rights such as Freedom of expression and association are usually abandoned in favor of ‘Orders from above’. Party primaries are usually not held or held at undisclosed locations with only a select group of leaders given the opportunity to choose candidates. Often, major decisions are taken based on Consensus. It would be a little bearable if such affirmation was done by the rank and file of the party. However the consensus arrangement is solely a decision by one strong man or the other. The party chain system is built by lining up one strong man on top of another. As is expected of opposition parties, APC never misses an opportunity to highlight the corrupt and authoritarian practices of the ruling party. It is ironic that a party that prides itself on being different would find it hard to ratify and implement the ‘Freedom of Information’ bill in all the states under its coverage. While APC has provided a roadmap for its party which is supposed to show what it would do if given power, it has still not provided the current working plan for its states. What is the basic difference in Life Expectancy rates, child mortality rates, SSCE Pass rates; Health Penetration rates between states ruled by APC and those ruled by others? Such Data are needed to prove the efficacy of APC’s message. Right now, APC seems to be making it up as it comes. I do not expect a miracle to happen in 2015
3. Elections will be issue based and not based on religion, sentiment or gender
As we see in saner climes, a lot of young people hope that voting decisions will be based on the fulfilment or the lack of fulfilment of campaign promises. There is a strong desire to see issues affecting the larger society becoming the fulcrum for the success of candidates at the ballots. Unfortunately, our elections do not revolve around serious issues. Mundane considerations such as ethnicity and religion are brought into play. Such sentiments are often used as a ‘gateway of last resort’. Every politician needs to rally the base by getting popular messages across. The aim is to show a clear difference between one candidate or party and another one. A combination of dumb politicians and poor voters will only lead to ethnic and religious baiting. Situations such as ‘I am better than the other one because he or she is not like us’ would often result. Terrible acts of sexism are hidden beneath the veil of ‘Traditional Practices’. The concept of women being seen and not heard is often in display during the election period. If an individual is attacked based on his ethnicity, he or she often has to find refuge in his own ethnic grouping. The effect is that a candidate who would have been ready to fight based on issues has to resort to gutter tactics in order to have a fighting chance. Subsequently an electoral loss is not seen as that of an individual or party but that of all Christians or Muslims in the community. Politicians like the status quo. They want to keep people at the bottom of the economic ladder so that they can push such trivialities at them. I am of the opinion that the manipulations of the past will be repeated next year
4. INEC is ready
The appointment of the current head of INEC was greeted with a lot of optimism. The belief at the time was that appointing an Individual with a track record of Integrity as the INEC boss was the panacea to all its prevalent issues. We have since learnt that Integrity and Competence do not always share a positively linear relationship. The (mis)conduct of INEC in the recently held Anambra Gubernatorial elections has left us in a state of trepidation when we think about the upcoming elections. INEC had to ensure that Voter registration, mobilization, Delivery of Materials to Polling booths, Recording of Votes and declaration of votes took place successfully in one state. These tasks proved to be too much for INEC to handle. We all watched as INEC decided to turn the elections into an unending Nollywood movie. Every right thinking person deserves to wonder how INEC would cope with elections on a National scale in 2015 based on their recent performance
5. Religious leaders will speak the truth
The major religions in Nigeria are Christianity and Islam. Culture is defined as the way of life of a group of people. Religion is a huge part of our Culture as Nigerians. Religious leaders can be said to be custodians of culture in the domain of their religious practices. My comments are restricted to the domain of Christianity which I am most familiar with. Most Churches in Nigeria fall under the banner of Orthodox Churches or that of Pentecostal Churches. While Orthodox churches are more concerned with the sustenance of their spiritual rituals, Pentecostal churches largely exist for the Provision of Untaxed Incomes to their Founder(s). Concepts such as Liberation Theology which spread in the Latin American region a couple of years ago are anathema in our own clime. Our Christian Leaders practice a ‘see no evil, hear no evil’ philosophy. They seem not to be concerned about the evil deeds of the Political class. They can often be found hiding behind scriptures such as ‘Touch not my anointed and do my prophets no harm’. The Truth is far from their mouths and they largely care about keeping the status quo in place. The adherents are kept in suffering while the clerics live in Abundance. Christian leaders at all levels have no qualms providing spiritual support for corrupt leaders. A case in point is the Jamboree called ‘Holy Pilgrimage’ in which Christian adherents are sponsored by the state to visit holy lands. Initially the junketing was limited to Israel. Lately we discovered that the Vatican City has been added to the Tour list. At this rate, I expect to see Tulsa, Oklahoma which is the hotbed of Evangelical Christianity added to the list of Pilgrimage sights. I am doubtful that our Pastors/ Bishops will change their way in 2015
6. We will have a great choice of presidential aspirants
Past elections have thrown up candidates that did not rouse much passion among young voters. It often ended up as a choice between 2 evils. Most election cycles ended with an endless supply of analysis and permutations on how elections would have been different if the Opposition put up a different candidate. This feeling of desolation stems from the excitement and suspense that is felt during American Election Cycles. All manners of statistics and probabilities are brought into play. Debates are conducted and an exchange of concepts and ideas of governance is seen between candidates. Every single bit of the electioneering process is followed in real-time mode. The loss of your favorite candidate would usually not destroy your faith in the process but strengthen it. Looking at our circumstances realistically, we would see that there are no structures in place to produce a different outcome in 2015. It is necessary to give our day-dreamers a dose of reality. Your greatest fears will be confirmed. PDP will hand over the ticket to the Incumbent President while APC will hand over the ticket to the retired General from Katsina. The two Strong men will slug it out in the arena of Politics and the winner will be one of them. It makes no sense to hide from the reality that awaits us. In Mathematics, the elimination of an uncertainty can lead to the resolution of an equation. It is necessary to start making future decisions based on the reality that either the PDP or APC candidate will win the next election.
I sincerely hope my predictions are wrong but this is all I see at the moment.
